Y Chromosome Mutation Rate Predictions

Y Chromosome Mutation Rate Predictions
M. Nailor, & D. Joseph.

In 2015, Young-Earth Creationist (YEC) Dr. Nathaniel T. Jeanson predicted the mutation rate of mtDNA in humans and 3 different animal “kinds”.

Since that time, those predictions based on a YEC timeline, have come to confirm YEC. This confirmation has demonstrated that we can explain the diversity we see today based on the fast observable mutation rates we find in some pedigree studies. 

Regarding the Y chromosome, however, we have recently discovered that the observable mutation rate is also extremely fast, far beyond evolutionary expected predictions, and far outside their time frame. This was discovered by Dr. Jeanson in 2019 when he was reading the Poznik et al. 2016 technical paper and noticed that they obtained a much higher mutation rate than they published. They hid it under the supplemental section of their study (probably to keep grant money coming in since it falsified the very theory they were paid to confirm). Dr. Jeanson published these findings of the fast mutation rate gathered from their results and demonstrated that the rate can explain all the genetic diversity we see in the world today with the exception of Africans.

Jeanson’s 2019 paper shows the root position on the far left. The fast rate captures nearly all known haplogroups (even many Africans if accounting for the highest rate), with the exception of the deepest A00 branch length belonging to a subset of Africans. Since he has yet made any future predictions on the Y chromosome, I will focus this study on that. Specifically, and using the YEC timeline predicts what we will find when southern African pedigree studies are finally published. 

Back to the Jeanson and Holland 2019) paper. They found that the Y chromosome mutation rate was much higher than that which the evolutionary model assumed to be true. Once again the phylogenetic mutation rate charts they invented failed miserably to real-world observation. Rather, results fell in line with the expectations of YEC after comparisons were derived from low coverage vs high coverage Y chromosome sequences (Poznik et al. 2016). The high coverage Y chromosome test results finally gave the data we have needed to observe an actual mutation rate rather than infer one. The results implied that the total timescale for the human Y chromosome tree was only a few thousand years. That’s right! A mutation rate so fast that even the slowest mutation rate obtained from the slowest mutating people could not possibly push humanity back even 10,000 years! 

The actual mutation rate for Europeans was 2 to 3 base pairs per generation, on average. Keep in mind these results were not from African people (no African father-son pedigrees were part of either the Karmin et al. 2015 and Maretty et al. 2017 studies), who of course biblically are Ham’s line. As Ham inherited all of Africa according to scripture.

The mutation rate for Japheth’s line tells us a few things. 1:) Europeans are known to have the slowest mutation rate of all people groups. The Amish for example mutate 7% - 14% SLOWER than even other Europeans, because of their high generation times, and cold regions where they live (in our opinion). Therefore, if we know the slowest mutation rate of the Y chromosome, and it can explain the diversity of all people groups on earth except for one, then we do not have much of a problem on our hands as YEC’s. Evolution on the other hand, has a substantial problem. You see, all that we as YECs have to do is account for a single people group (Africans) having a slightly faster mutation rate (people who have yet to be tested). Evolutionists however, needed the observable mutation rate to be exponentially slower than what has been discovered in even the slowest mutation rate studies. 

This slow mutation rate found in the Amish (January 21, 2020, in PNAS) was so shocking to the evolutionary community who believe in Neutral theory (That all things in nature, including humans, mutate at the same rate), stated; “It really looks like environmental differences might actually [have] the most significant effect on the number of mutations that you pass on to your offspring, rather than . . . there being some sort of gene causing mutations, says Aylwyn Scally, a geneticist at the University of Cambridge. 

You see, the 59 Amish families were a perfect group of people to test since they have been genetically isolated from other populations since the 1700s and all descended from about 700 individual founders. They had a seven-percent-lower mutation rate compared with the other populations. 

Timothy O’Connor from the University of Maryland and co-author of the study stated; “We were pretty surprised,” Initially the team thought the lower mutation rate had to be a mistake from the sequencing or analysis. We did basically everything we could to try and figure out what kind of artifact would be causing it, and we couldn’t find one. So far the group has speculated that environmental factors are probably the cause for this slower mutation rate phenomenon. You will notice though, that they made no predictions based on this. Yet we have because our model tells us, so we have a hypothesis to start out with to make predictions based on.

Parsons actually already discovered this slower mutation rate back in the ’90s. You can see in the chart near the bottom. He noted that the Amish mutated 14% slower than the average European. 

Considering he was looking at de novo mutations of the cell lines in both hypervariable regions of the D-loop, and substitutions. you would expect the same rate as other people groups, but that is not what he found. They have a slower mutation rate and this has now been confirmed in separate studies decades apart.

Most have forgotten about his work, but the FBI still uses his mutation rate to this day and this new study confirms his previous work, which of course points to Eve living 6,500 years ago as his work concluded.

Parsons original 1997 study

Parsons in 1997 studied 167 independent mtDNA lineages (33 Sweden, 73 US mixed ancestry, 5 England, 40 Amish, & 16 people from Utah). Then in 1998 after working on the tsar's DNA case, Parsons conducted another large study along with Holland, about the same size as his first 1997 study. The results confirmed earlier results, humanity mtDNA mutation rates go back around 6,500 years on average.

Based on genetic diversity and the Biblical timeline, Dr. Jeanson has predicted the mtDNA mutation rate in the African Khoisan people would be twice as fast as rates in other people groups. Therefore I will predict the mutation rate of the Y chromosome, using scripture to devise a hypothesis that the reason we see more mutations in Ham’s paternal Y chromosome, is because of a combination of younger generation times, smaller population sizes over time, with more generations total, including warmer weather and lack of migration.

These factors will allow for an explanatory prediction to be made as long as we have a timeframe to start with. Dr. Jeanson uses the Masoretic texts which place’s Noah's flood sometime around 4,365 years ago. I personally view the other bobcat text’s chronology as superior as all other ancient texts place the age of the flood between 5,190-5,320 years ago. So my mutation rate will be rooted around that date, not Dr. Jeanson’s.

The top mutation rate is what we already have evidence for…

3 mutations per generation average (5320 years, 25 years generation time = 212 generations) 212 x 3 = 424 mutations. This number captures the genetic diversity in the Asian and European haplogroups. 

Using only the mutation rate from Europeans in the pedigree study, we get up to 1,122 mutations which explains the genetic diversity in basically all the other people groups. Is this true? Yes, we notice most mutations are somewhere around 450. So this observable mutation rate discovery easily explains the genetic diversity we see in all people groups around the earth but one, Africans. 

Now, My Future Predictions are based on a Biblical timeline...

4-7 mutations per generation for most Africans (Paternal Haplogroup A2, A3 & B). With the highest mutation per generation being 9.73 mutations per generation in the African San’s people. (5,320 years, with an 18 year generation time over 295 generations = 2,870 mutations over time since the flood.

Now for the African people groups. If the average mutation rate of 3 per generation in Europeans, then what should we expect to find in the average African population? Predictions were based on Ham’s line and since his inheritance was that of Africa. Migration into the land took place right after Babel. So we have around 4,800 years of isolation in the continent, giving the average African between 5-7 mutations per generation. Essentially double the rate of Europeans. The more mutations in Africans is the reason people believe in the Out of Africa theory in the first place. They believe since everybody mutates at the same rate, then Africans must be the oldest because they have more mutations. I have already shown you that even within the European lineage Amish people mutate 7% -14% slower than the rest of their brethren, so we already know the neutral theory is wrong even by looking at just humans.

Although the new observable rapid rate of the Y chromosome literally destroys evolutionism, we like to have not just a better model with more predictions and all the answers, but also have repeatable in-your-face data that cannot be cherry-picked and twisted like evolutionary theory loves to do. We can explain this fast rate in our model, just as we can with the mtDNA fast rates as well. Evolutionists have to invent more desperate rescue devices and ad nauseam storytelling. This includes invoking that we YECs should be using the evolutionary non-observable phylogenetic mutation rates that are based on deep-time evolution being true. This is the one of their most embarrassing arguments to date, because clearly as YECs, we do not buy into deep-time, and universal common ancestry. Therefore, why would we start with the assumption that the very thing in question is true in the first place? It makes no logical sense just like the rest of their horrible arguments against the observable data. This argument is actually very fallacious as it demonstrates the circular reasoning of the evolutionist. The fact that mutations occurred every generation in the Y chromosome study implies that the Y chromosome could record changes in human population size at every generation in human history. This makes the Y chromosome rate far superior to mtDNA mutation rates for reaching a conclusion, as mtDNA is much harder to count as they are less than ½ a mutation per generation. 

Dr. Jeanson discovered that pedigree-based mutation rates from high-coverage sequence runs are hidden in the evolutionary literature. They are forced to hide this information because the data falsifies their entire theory (not that it hasn’t already been falsified multiple times over again).

But they know, if they lose mutations, they lose it all. Evolution is a house of cards built on a foundation of mutations. Since they cannot explain the diversity of life we see even regarding mutations, then they have lost and lost they have and the entire concept implodes. We already know they cannot make any predictions because they have already admitted that they can’t since evolution can theoretically do anything, thus also proving evolution is not science. This tells us and everyone with even half a brain that evolution is finished since evolutionary theory hinges on mutations to explain the diversity of life we see. Since not only is the maternal mtDNA mutation rate extremely fast, which points to YEC being true, we also know that the Y chromosome (which is not only much more clear and easier to read than the mtDNA), but is also mutating faster. You will only find the most stiff-necked anti-science atheists refusing to accept the obvious conclusion of the data at this point. 

 It has no predictive power, it explains nothing since it claims to be able to do everything, and it’s unfalsifiable since no matter what happens it's just proof of evolution. If the data doesn’t match the story it is discarded and something else is invented and put in its place. 

The truth is, Evolution only hangs on because it's protected by law and does not allow alternative theories to conflict with it whatsoever. This theory is as anti-science as you can get and it’s all kids are allowed to learn. The observable evidence tells us that the only viable model is YEC and it is ironic that it is the one they mock the most because they know deep down it destroys their theory. Everyone knows that deep down if there’s nothing to worry about then what’s the fear of teaching something else alongside the other? The only reason you would restrict somebody from learning an alternative model would be because you don’t want them to see the truth. If evolution theory was really true then they should be confident as it would be repeatedly confirmed decade after decade. In essence, it would have nothing to worry about. Yet, they protect it by law and disallow any alternative theory. But if you’re reading this, you know as well as I know that the books we studied in school are all in the garbage now, and everything that is in them was wrong. Just like every textbook that is in kids’ hands right now will also be in the trash in 10 years from now.

If you believe in evolution after reading this article, you either 1:) Do not understand what you just read, 2:) You are an atheist and facts do not matter anyway. 3:) You want to keep on the majority side at all costs and toss away real science and evidence to fit in with the majority so you can allow scripture to meld with pagan ideas. 

Since evolution Theory is based around one thing, mutations. And evolution can’t make any predictions based on mutations in theory really cannot explain anything and it’s just that, a story. And not even a good one at that. They can’t even explain the diversity that we see in the world today which is all they have claimed from the beginning to do. Yet, it is the young-earth creationist making the predictions based on the observable testable and repeatable science and it confirmed biblical creation. 

Either way, none of those are valid reasons. Become a YEC today and watch your life change as you become rooted into the foundation of faith that scripture is based on. 



Parsons 1997 DOI: 10.1038/ng0497-363 

Dr. Nathaniel T. Jeanson Human mtDNA mutation rate; Answers Research Journal 8 (2015): 375–378 

mtDNA mutation rate in separate “kinds” https://answersresearchjournal.org/origin-mitochondrial-genes-metazoan/ 

Dr. Nathaniel T. Jeanson and Ashley D. Holland Answers Research Journal 12 (2019): 393–404. Published on December 4, 2019. Y chromosome pedigree-based mutation rates from high-coverage sequence runs are hidden in the evolutionary literature.

Dr. Nathaniel T. Jeanson; Answers Research Journal 12 (2019): 405–423. human population growth should be reflected in most of the branches of the Y chromosome tree. 


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